M&A speculation rife in pharma

If 2003 was marked by consolidation in the biotechnology industry, then in 2004 the spotlight seems to have tracked firmly back to pharmaceuticals - and particularly the European majors.

In the latest development, the news that Novartis had increased its stake in fellow Swiss major Roche from 32.7 per cent to 33.3 per cent prompted renewed speculation of a marriage between the two.

Novartis' stake is now just shy of the holding that would force it to make an outright offer for Roche, although chief exective Daniel Vasella insists that no additional purchases are planned.

Vasella has long said that a tie-up between the two would be a good move. At Novartis' annual general meeting last year, he said that a merger made good financial sense, but was unlikely to take place because of 'psychologically or politically motivated objections'.

"Objective analysis clearly shows that larger firms with broader portfolios will be better able to manage risks and serve patients with innovation and a stream of new products," he said. And there would be considerable scope for cost-cutting between the two firms.

For its part, Roche has persistently maintained its desire for independence, arguing that it already had all the advantages of size, quality and position in the world drugs market in order to operate successfully on its own.

For good measure, Novartis' name has also been linked with Germany's Schering AG this week, although this has been dismissed by both parties as pure market speculation.

Aventis, Sanofi rumours cannot be quashed

Meanwhile, the rumour mill has been grinding out the names of Sanofi-Synthelabo and Aventis for some time, and there seems little sign of it stopping, despite repeated denials by the two parties.

German newspaper Handelsblatt said yesterday that talks were ongoing to create a €86 billion French pharmaceutical giant that would vie for the number two spot in the industry after Pfizer. However, other reports have suggested that cosmetics company L'Oreal, which holds a 20 per cent stake in Sanofi, is blocking the move.

Aventis' name has also been linked to US company Procter & Gamble, largely on the grounds that the two companies already have an alliance in place to market drugs for osteoporosis. However, this has been downplayed by analysts, who suspect that P&G will eventually exit the drug sector altogether, while the link-up would do little to solve Aventis' problem of having gaps in its product pipeline.