Flu vaccine capacity at its highest… for now

This year, flu vaccine production is increasing, with the number one flu vaccine producer Sanofi-Aventis leading the way, followed by Swiss Novartis and British GlaxoSmithKline.

However, a potential over-supply of vaccine might come to haunt the market in the future, with companies finding that demand for their vaccines fails to meet their expectations, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the USA.

The leading manufacturers, and notably GSK which has been investing heavily in flu vaccine production capacity lately, could find surplus stocks of their vaccines unused at the end of the current flu season, and this could affect orders in 2007.

Any over-supply of flu vaccine need to be destroyed, as flu strains change from year to year rendering previous vaccine batches useless.

So far, in 2006 the US market has been flooded with flu vaccine. In total, 115 million doses were produced, an increase of 34 million of the previous year, according to CDC figures.

Sanofi-Aventis produced 50 million doses, followed by Novartis with 40 million and GlaxoSmithKline with 25 million.

Manufacturing problems have led to shortages of flu vaccine in the past, with the most notable being Chiron's contaminated vaccine in 2004, resulting in the loss of almost half of the US supply. The glitch allowed Sanofi-Aventis and GlaxoSmithKline to climb the flu production ladder.

This year, companies have been shipping vaccine earlier to be able to supply more vaccine and meet an expected increase in demand. Sanofi-Aventis shipped 50 million doses before the end of November; while Novartis shipped batches already back in August. Novartis experienced a production glitch affecting 20,000 doses, but this did not slow down the company's shipping.

The economic burden of seasonal flu outbreaks hits hospitals and the health care system hard. The World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates that five to 15 per cent of the population is affected on a yearly basis.

The ideal months to receive a flu vaccination are in October and November, but anytime before the flu peaks in February will suffice.

Children and elderly people are most susceptible to influenza and in the event of a vaccine shortage should be the first in line to receive an injection.

The avian influenza, H5N1, has caused people to worry about its potential to mutate so that it spreads from human to human and causes a pandemic.

Recently, the US department of health and human services awarded GlaxoSmithKline a $40 million contract to supply bird flu vaccine, H5N1 antigen.