GMDs “North America Active Pharmaceutical ingredients market analysis and forecasts to 2020,” suggests that lower government spending in the downturn has shifted the market away from high-priced innovative drugs.
This lower rate of spending they said: “has resulted in a significant slowdown in the revenue growth of the North American API market,” which they expect to grow just 2 per cent this year.
Demand for biotech APIs
However, the report also predicts that the market is poised for recovery predicting that growing consumer demand for biotech active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and increasing technological capability in the drug industry will be the key drivers.
The authors forecast that these factors, coupled with the emerging biogenerics sector, will see the biotech API market grow 13 per cent a year between 2009 and 2020, a “significantly higher” rate than for synthetic APIs.
Generics poised for growth
GMD also suggested that cost-containment in the Canada and the US will drive a significant expansion of the generic API market over the next few years, predicting that it will grow 8 per cent a year through to 2020 while the innovative API market will gain just 2 per cent over the same period.
The report also predicts Canada will gain a bigger share of the North American API market, growing from the 6 per cent it holds at the moment to 7 per cent by the year 2015.
The authors explain that: “The Canadian API market is characterized by an emerging biotech API product segment which is growing fastest in the North American market.
“Adding to this, Canada is expected to have a quick recovery from the recession compared to the US which will keep the country’s API market growing at a higher rate.”