In a new report titled ‘Pharmaceutical Contract Manufacturing: World Market Outlook 2012-2022’, analysts predict the world market for contract production will hit $47.6bn this year. That figure is expected to rise six per cent per year up until 2016.
The firm say an increase in the number of generics being produced means that API production, particularly in the emerging markets, will grab the biggest portion of the thriving sector.
Speaking to Outsourcing-Pharma.com, the paper’s lead analyst Richard Lang said: “The cost advantage of using an emerging market API manufacturer can help cut the cost of manufacturing these low-priced products.”
He added that more favorable environments in those countries, for instance increased compliance with European and US good manufacturing practice (GMP) standards, will also drive demand for services in emerging markets, and that many firms there will “focus solely on API production” over the next ten years.
The earmarks India and China in particular as developing industries set to mop up large amounts of the contract manufacturing organisation (CMO) biz because demand for services is already higher.
The authors wrote: “Brazil and Russia, although large pharmaceutical markets, do not have the same self-sufficiency in manufacturing as India and China have. Both countries rely on imports of APIs for drug manufacturing.”
The EU and US markets
As for the Europe and the US, Lang predicts the two will also drive contract manufacturing growth through API production, however theirs will largely be of the highly potent variety.
He told us: “Companies in the EU and US have greater experience in Highly potent active pharmaceutical ingredients (HPAPI) manufacturing at present - complex and potent drugs are more widely manufactured and used in these regions.”
Lang added that emerging CMOs could become bigger players in the HP field at a later date and that they are currently “gaining experience” but experienced “developed market manufacturers will provide the greater proportion of HPAPIs to the pharmaceutical industry for the foreseeable future.”
The report also predicts developed markets will see an uptick in finished dose contracts due to a boost in the number of biologics becoming available.
“Development of biologics will increase demand for injectable dosage manufacturing services, including fill-finish and lyophilisation,” the authors said.