DCAT WEEK 2018
Pharma industry outlook: 80% of growth to come from pharmerging countries
Despite a poor 2017, the US continues to dominate growth and sales, said Graham Lewis, vice president, global pharma strategy, IQVIA, during DCAT Week 2018.
Outside the US, he noted that Germany is critical to pharma, not only as the largest market in Europe, but as the reference point for about 20 other countries.
In China, by 2021 – “certainly 2022” – Lewis said the pharma market will be as large as the whole of the top five countries in Europe.
“Whatever the challenges of working in China, and there are many, China is becoming fundamental in terms of commercialization of medicines,” he added.
Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC) countries are still on the rise, though there has been depressed growth due to a decrease in public health funding.
However, 80% of positive growth in the next five years will come from pharmerging countries, Lewis said, as regional players – who “do a better job” – dominate the market.
“Turkey is the outstanding example, in terms of growth over the course of the next five years,” he explained, though China and India will represent nearly half of all volume in pharmerging markets by 2022.
Additionally, Lewis noted that biosimilar manufacturing is moving to Asia, with Korean-developed biosimilars contributing to 43% of biosimilar value.
Lewis also predicts that Africa will become an area of significant growth in 2020 through 2030 for healthcare. Yet, as he admitted: “A lot of my forecasts turn out to be wrong.”
